Triple Screen Trading System - Dr. Alexander Elder trading system

Sriganeshh said....
anuj
just thinking..u created so many excel programs.
what's ur view on elder's trading system..is it not good?
like to know ur views
best
sri
*****************************
My notes:
Dr. Alexander Elder trading system - http://www.elder.com/
Do you mean the triple screen trading system?
I think it is one of the best and logical way to trade.I feel it is similar to other systems or setups.like multiple time frames theory and what Ilango mentioned today in this blog 5th of  5th in Elliott wave...
What is 5th of 5th in Elliott wave? If you take a closer look you will see that, there is a 5th wave in progress and there are a smaller degree of  a waves within that fith wave ,which is making 12345 wave pattern.
So the best place is to sell or buy is when markets are overbought or oversold in two time frames.I do this quite often.I check 15 min time frame and establish a bias (markets call table)and use Intraday (5 or 1 mins chart) to enter in direction of trend.

How do I do that?
Information that I have before the market opens (I know the direction of trend and I also know when it changes(SAR - Stop And Reverse )
Assuming we are in down trend(opposite in case of up trend).I try to establish a point where market will be overbought in 15 mins chart.Then I move to 5 minutes or 1 minutes to find overbought levels in that  time frame.
This point is the place which gives me best risk to reward in terms of 15 minutes chart and my  SAR (Stop And Reverse).So I enter shorts at that point
In simple words, look for a pullback (against the trend movement) in your trading time frame to get a good entry (better risk to reward ratio)

I hope it gives some new insights,for more read Dr Elder's book,Come into my trading room.I will discuss this in details with chart some other time
Good luck
Cheers

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Budget Day - Great way to test your intraday trading system's performance

Hi all,
First of all Happy Holi to everyone,hope every body enjoy playing with "other colors" apart from our daily favorites, green and red!!!
Friday was the budget day and as always it was a volatile day,reasons are quite simple, a lot of economic and industry specific news is released in very short period of time while the market are open.
I am attaching three charts :
IFCI - went up all day
ITC - went down all day
DLF - went up and lost ground at much faster pace

I feel these were nice intraday movements and are quite good to test your intraday system.While the news flow is heavy on budget day,tracking, analyzing and reaction to every piece of news is impossible.Price movement is our most reliable tool in this case ,as always.I would like you to test your intraday trading system base on these stock price movement.It will tell you whether your system is more of a leading or lagging in nature.It will also give you important insights into your own psychology of how you tend manage changing market conditions.Try to imagine how you would have traded in these three stock that day.As history repeats itself(one of the basic principles on which technical analysis is based) it will make you better prepared the next time you witness such a volatile day with divergent stock price movement
Cheers.

IFCI

ITC









DLF

GOLD AND CRUDE OIL FUTURES CALLS FOR 26 JANUARY 2010

COMMODITY CALLS FOR (25-26) JANUARY 2010

COMMODITY CALLS FOR (22 and Next trading day) JANUARY 2010

How to use the market calls table

COMMODITY CALLS FOR 21-22 JANUARY 2010

How to use the market calls table

UPDATE - How to use the market calls table

hi
I have made certain changes in the post How to use the market calls table 
In market calls table instead of "Trend" i have now updated it to call 'Swing" and i have added a few ways in which you can use the table for intraday trades.
Cheers

COMMODITY CALLS FOR 20-21 JANUARY 2010

COMMODITY CALLS FOR 19 JANUARY 2010

It pays to follow the index (Nifty)

hi,
In the morning the expectation of a gap down were high because of the Asian cues.But the gap in nifty was not too big  more over it stayed above the SAR mentioned in the Market Calls table.Then there was a sudden movement and it took Nifty quite close to recent week highs.

In the market calls table some stocks were mentioned for a short trade while the market(nifty) was still showing bullishness with up swing intact.Its always better to trade in the direction of market so taking bullish trades would have been profitable.Although stock do there own thing because of news,technical factors and sector sentiment,but it pays to be trading in the direction of market trend

Same will be applicable for tomorrow's trades, reliance,dlf, tatasteel, are coming  up as short trends but its best to avoid them as general market is bullish.In fact dlf is about to complete a reversal(it ended the day at the high point thus chances of a gap up tomorrow is very high) and reliance is completely sideways since ages.

More later

Morning Update

Asian markets have opened lower taking cues from US market's trading on friday and that will also affect the opening moves in the Indian markets as well.US markets are closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day


Follow the "SAR" and try to trade as per the Market call table,with a gap down low risk long positions can be created provided the index/stock trades above th "SAR" and profits on short positions can be booked closer to "target" levels and re-entry can be made on intra day up move for tomorrow.


Intraday moves offer low risk entry and exit to the swing trades 


Hope everyone has a good trading day ahead

COMMODITY CALLS FOR 18 JANUARY 2010

How to use the market calls table

Hi,

From today I will be posting the market calls for the next trading day .As I have mentioned before, being a swing trader these are short term calls and they may not be suitable for your trading style. Please read the disclaimer before taking any decision on the strategies mentioned.

The most important thing in the table is the “SWING” column, it indicates the current swing direction and it is advised that we should trade in the direction of the swing

Next is "SAR" or the Stop and Reverse point , if the price touches that level, the current swing direction changes to the other direction (that will be reflected in the next post)

Then comes the column “Low risk entry ” this is the approximate level where the stock / index will retrace to during intraday trade,failing to reach this point during intraday trade means momentum is HIGH (in the direction of swing)

Then we have a “Target ” level ,which is simply a point that I expect the stock/index should reach if the trend is strong during intraday, failing to touch this level indicates a possible chance of reversal or LOSS of momentum (in the direction of swing)

That’s all about the table; I believe it’s very simple to understand. I would like to repeat that the most important column for a swing trader is “Swing” and “SAR” as long as that remains intact we can enter at any point (intraday over sold level)or book profits at any level(intraday overbought level) for long positions and opposite in case of short positions.But we should carry the position for the next day as suggested by 'swing' column provide SAR is not breached

For intraday trades you should trade in direction of the 'swing' and enter at "low risk entry"point with a possible target at the levels mentioned in the "target" column.You can modify this approach and trade as per your risk appetite or daily profit expectation but only in direction of  "Swing"

These levels and SAR work best in trending markets / stocks,ranging markets will give whipsaws.So try to avoid stock in consolidation phase or trade with less volume or use oscillators extremes to enter and exits out of trade.

Since SAR is a trailing stop,you will end up giving back some of your profits always.That is a basic disadvantage of trailing stop loss order.For best trading results you need to book profits near "target" and re-enter near "low risk entry" zone.Although I have given precise points as "SAR","low risk entry" and "target" you need to watch that zone and react as per prevailing market conditions.

Always wait for prices to become stable as the markets opens and put in your stops 10-15 minutes after market opens.Enter intraday trades as you see prices stalling,that skill will come from practice.

If you have a counter view to the current swing it is best to wait on the sidelines or trade with less volume with strict stop-loss for a short duration.

If you have any questions or comments feel free to ask

Good luck.


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