Market calls performance -Analysis
Friday marked the end of first week of my blog,I have got immense support from visitors across the world (Thank you all for paying a visit and hope to see you/hear from you on regular basis)
By Friday i had posted 5 days of market calls and it has been very tough for me to do all this stuff(i will find some convenient way to do this ,please suggest something on how it can be done and i will also ask for your help)
Now coming back to main topic,I have posted how the market calls have performed for the week , result are quite good as per my opinion,thats not because i have made good decisions but because market finally moved in a trend and this is a trend following system,so it worked and will always work under strong trends
How did i calculate the returns?
Since this was the first week ,I assumed that we enter the index/stocks on the first SAR breach which happened on Tuesday and in some case Wednesday(check it yourself)
Second assumption that i have made is that we closed the position on Friday EOD in order to calculate the profits/loss.
Third Assumption (the most dangerous one to assume!!!) is that we were able to act on SAR that was recommended.
Decimals have been rounded off
Now keeping the above points in mind if we calculate (provide I did it right,and please correct me if i am wrong for benefit of all) we get these returns which to me are excellent,but just check out how Tata steel performed,if you were trading as per levels mentioned you would have had a tough time.See how difficult Friday morning would have been for you if you were long in it (as it was going up till Thursday)It gapped down below the SAR and went straight down to 620 from around 650(Thursday's close approximately)...In calculation i have taken just the absolute values ,so how i calculated it ? 624.5 (fridays close) - 641.5 (thurs days market call SAR for longs) comes to 17 points profit !!!...But i doubt if anyone could have managed that in real trading.People generally wait for first 15-30 mins before acting on SAR...this one would have landed you in a mess if you did that
Rest results were good and it was easy to enter at SAR...But do check Tata steel to understand what risk you face while trading.All in all it was a good weekly performance and most of shorts will continue for Monday and another down day is expected (i will post market call for Monday by evening).
I need to warn you about how people show there performance.My brokerage company keep posting how well their calls perform.Stuff like...90 % accuracy ...if you invested 1 lakh it will be 4 lakh in 6 months if you followed our calls.Be very careful of such misleading information....ask for detail ...do your own maths...and see how practical the entries and exits would have been if you followed the calls as per your trading style
Anyways you should not follow anybody's advice build your own system and to do it now ,you should check this link if you have not done till now .
Good Luck
PS....the way i have calculated the returns is perhaps the laziest way to trade ....and we still end up in profit!!!....and it takes 15 sec to put that trade .Returns can be much more if you can fine turn that and use intraday moves to enter/exit/add/reduce your positions(in short money management,keeping 'swing'and "sar' levels in mind)
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