I made a Buy Only / Sell Only Watch List last year, 12 December 2010 to be precise. Today I sat down to collect past data and compare how the stocks have performed over time. At that time the market was trending higher and new highs were around the corner. But looking back now, the whole year turned out to be down trending market!
Check out the performance of stocks below.
Inferences from the above table
1) All the stocks outperformed Nifty in their respective categories except LT, ONGC and TTML.
2) While Nifty is down only 10.6 % individual stock in "sell only " list went down by 41 % on an average. Clearly the market was in a strong "bear grip" during this time.
3) The watch list included only F&O traded stocks, but GTLINFRA was removed by NSE from F&O segment. GTLINFRA turned out to be the best performer on the short side!
Analysis and Trading
There is a difference between analysis and trading. What looks to be a good performance on paper is extremely tough in practice. I never traded in any of these stocks. That's why we see more tipsters/analysts than profitable traders in the markets [ including me :) ]
The Strategy
Combining value, momentum and trend is one of the most profitable strategy. This can be demonstrated to some extent by above data.
Check out the performance of stocks below.
Inferences from the above table
1) All the stocks outperformed Nifty in their respective categories except LT, ONGC and TTML.
2) While Nifty is down only 10.6 % individual stock in "sell only " list went down by 41 % on an average. Clearly the market was in a strong "bear grip" during this time.
3) The watch list included only F&O traded stocks, but GTLINFRA was removed by NSE from F&O segment. GTLINFRA turned out to be the best performer on the short side!
Analysis and Trading
There is a difference between analysis and trading. What looks to be a good performance on paper is extremely tough in practice. I never traded in any of these stocks. That's why we see more tipsters/analysts than profitable traders in the markets [ including me :) ]
The Strategy
Combining value, momentum and trend is one of the most profitable strategy. This can be demonstrated to some extent by above data.
Good Work AJ
ReplyDeleteEven in a down trending market your long only portfolio gained 8.3%.
Thanks San, but gains are only on paper! These don't take into account the huge impact "trading psychology" makes when we trade.That's why same strategy gives different results to different traders :(
ReplyDeleteGood Morning AJ!
ReplyDeleteNot bad, FD returns on long only and usurious returns on short only! Goes to show that bears are real sharks. :)
Hi r m, good morning :)
ReplyDeleteGood Morning AJ!
ReplyDeleteGood morning r m :)
ReplyDeleteGood Afternoon AJ! Happy weekend. :)
ReplyDeleteGood afternoon r m, thanks same to you :)
ReplyDeleteHi folks
ReplyDeleteEOD data in amibroker format and Intraday data in .csv format uploaded at My 4shared folder.
I could not uploade the data in time due to broadband issues. :(
regards
rm
Thanks r m :)
ReplyDeleteGood Morning AJ!
ReplyDeleteGood afternoon r m!
ReplyDeleteGood Morning AJ!
ReplyDeletehi r m, good morning :)
ReplyDeleteGood Morning AJ!
ReplyDeleteGood morning r m :)
ReplyDeleteHi AJ,
ReplyDeleteYou have done a lot of research on ATR..How to trade using ATR and which other indicators should be used simultaneously..What is the % of whipsaws..
Suresh
Good Morning AJ! Frying bulls this fryday? :)
ReplyDeleteHave a great weekend!
@Suresh
ReplyDeleteHi, one can do channel based trading using ATR. Check the link below
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:keltner_channels
Reducing the number of trades, helps to reduce the loss as a result of whipsaws. Therefore go "long only" in strong stocks and "short only" in weak stocks.
Can't comment about the exact "% of whipsaws", it will depend on what kind of data we analyse (different for different stocks) and what time frame we trade. Good luck
@r m
ReplyDeleteHi, I like grilled stuff than fried...
So I would say bulls are getting barbecued!
Portfolio ki vaat lag rahi hai :(
Do you maintain a portfolio as well apart from day trading?
Thanks AJ!!!Have a great weekend....
ReplyDeleteSuresh
Good Morning AJ!
ReplyDeleteI am one of those stupid guys who did not sell their PF at the heighs of 2008, and having seen the depths that year, everything seems bullish for ever! Thanks God, I had a very miniscule PF. :)
Good morning r m. Thanks :)
ReplyDeleteGood Morning AJ!
ReplyDeleteHi, good morning r m :)
ReplyDeleteGood Morning AJ!
ReplyDeleteAbhi kitna profit aur kamaoge Sir? :)
@r m
ReplyDeleteGood morning,
"profit" don't be 'SAR'castic :))
Good Morning AJ!
ReplyDeleteOh I was just worried that bears may get indigestion. :)
@r m
ReplyDeleteGood morning...he he :)
the move from 4628 looks like a zigzag, internals of zigzag should have 5-3-5 waves. As of now we have done with a 5 wave and a 3 wave. so expect a 5 wave upmove to start on monday
ReplyDeletehttp://niftybn.blogspot.com/2011/11/25th-nov-2011-4-pm-post-market-update.html
Good Morning AJ!
ReplyDeleteGood morning r m.
ReplyDeleteGood Afternoon AJ!
ReplyDeleteGood evening r m :D
ReplyDeleteThis comment has been removed by the author.
ReplyDeleteGood Morning AJ, have a great weekend!
ReplyDeleteHi r m, good morning, enjoy your weekend :)
ReplyDeleteExcellent work Excellent
ReplyDeleteGood Morning AJ!
ReplyDeleteHi r m, good morning!
ReplyDeleteGood Morning AJ!
ReplyDeleteHi, good morning r m....
ReplyDeleteGood Morning AJ!
ReplyDeleteGood morning r m :)
ReplyDeleteGood Afternoon AJ! Happy Weekend!
ReplyDeleteGood afternoon r m, wish you the same...
ReplyDeleteGood Morning AJ!
ReplyDeleteGood afternoon r m :)
ReplyDeletegood information about stock market.....
ReplyDelete