Hi
I am uploading a couple of charts showing recent trends in Nifty.Bollinger bands have "compressed" to suggest an impending large move,which direction we don't know.I have plotted some trend channels and possible support and resistance.I feel this is good time to open shorts as it offers good risk to reward ratio.Stop loss will be close to recent highs
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Hi
ReplyDeleteNice analysis
As per last night and morning cues, the short idea is well anticipated ... :)
Thanks
Shazia
Good Morning Anuj! :)
ReplyDelete@Shazia
ReplyDeletethis week is full of all sorts of news and economic data from US.Fed rate policy decision today...while Indian central bank (RBI) has already started the rate hike regime.Fed is just not moving.It tells us that in India priority of central bank is inflation....while in US its growth...If we get rate hike in US that will start the topping out period of bull market..so that will be good time to move to defensive portfolio....of course on day to day basis we trade as per short term trend
Cheers
@ r m
ReplyDeleteGood morning..some how your wake up call is not reaching my ears at time ...just woke up after the opening bell..:))
@Anuj
ReplyDeleteLooks like you had too much fun last night looking at Dow "bhaijaan". :)
join australain process for 1 month. ur sleep cycle will get balanced and corrected :-)
ReplyDelete@piyush
ReplyDeletehe he...great idea Thanks :))
@ rm
ReplyDeleteactually had fun watching Goldman Sachs (GS) Q&A with Senate investigations panel
@Anuj
ReplyDeleteThose senate or congressional investigations are real fun to watch. They have such sharp guys on both sides. God knows when our parliamentarians will quit discussing "Kachra" in the parliament and concentrate on national issues.
@ Anuj
ReplyDeleteWould defensive include telecom? what about IT ..is it still a defensive?
awaiting reply!
Shazia
Hi,
ReplyDeleteJust a thought... When interest rates rise markets tend to go up..isnt it?
After all that is what happened from 04 to 07..na?
Even when we trade for the short term, keeping a long term view is not a bad idea..
Thanks
Shazia
@Shazia
ReplyDeleteWell personally for me the best defensive is a short trade,I chase momentum...both on upside as well as down
But as you said that before jan 2008 you moved to defensive strategy and saved yourself from loss (relatively)...that's why mentioned "defensive"
If feel any sector that gets least impacted with recession...or high interest rates will be good
So telecom,pharma and FMCG sectors could be considered, as demand for the products of these sectors stays almost same regardless of the economic conditions...IT has run up quite a bit (of course can move up more)....but it is susceptible to a down turn
We should not mix portfolio with trading...rules are slightly different
Regarding rate hikes...when interest rate go up...loans become expensive...so it hampers corporate expansion and profitability...how ever a rate hike doesn't mean markets will start falling immediately...it gets factored into the system with a lag...apart for that the quantum of rate hike is also an important factor to consider
Lots of ifs and buts in above explanation :))
Best way out is follow the prices
Cheers
@ rm
ReplyDeleteyes person from senate was really a sharp guy..I was imagining IPL guys facing a similar inquiry from Lalu Prasad Yadav!!!...that would be more interesting than IPL match
These people in senate we talking like pro traders..and looked disturbed as if GS has robbed their money!!
I think this type of investigations will happen in India after 50 years (I feel I have under estimated!!)
Live Q & A in front of national television ..american citizens would have felt that at least some one cares about them...and justice is not dead.
Here every investigation happens behind "closed doors" and "under the table"
Cheers