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Fed rate announcement today
ReplyDeleteBloomberg reports:
Market Consensus Before Announcement
The FOMC announcement for the March 16 FOMC policy meeting is expected to leave the fed funds target rate unchanged at a range of zero to 0.25 percent. However, focus will be on any news on the Fed's balance-sheet exit strategy, including whether there is progress on moving toward using the interest rate paid on reserves as a new target rate. Also, there is a possibility that the Board could announce another 25 basis point increase in the discount rate as the Fed has recently announced that it is gradually moving toward a normalization of the spread between the discount rate and the fed funds target rate (traditionally 100 basis points but currently 50 basis points).
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So gap up or gap down tomorrow?
@vicky
ReplyDeletethanks for helping sriganeshh...hope he finds that useful in his research..keep up this sharing spirit going on...
cheers
hi,
ReplyDeletehow do you decide the trend has changed to down or up? An intraday breaching of levels is enough or a closing below or above the SAR is more better?
Thanks
Shazia
Hi Shazia,
ReplyDeletetrend change is decided by SAR breach.. intraday if it is touched...it qualifies as SAR breach...How the stock ends the day is very important for me...In a down trend shocks should end toward the lower range(closer to target level and not between low risk entry and SAR level) and preferably at the day's low..opposite for up trends
Take for example reliance capital today.. although I have stated it as down trend it ended at day's high ...that would make me very nervous with my short trades for tomorrow..so how should we deal with this problem...answer is simple ...by reducing the volumes...or by stepping aside...if you have a day trading system working along with swing trading you would be out of trade when intraday up move started ...multiple strategies can be formed...as per one's risk appetite...
I will post a money management plan that should be helpful to you and readers...money management is most important thing which is often ignored
I have never understood this "closing below thing" ,you have to act as per intraday move...what will you do if it moves up by 200 point intraday?...you will wait for closing and the book loss or enter new trade at closing?...this way you will ensure bad exit and bad entries all the time...
Can you explain "how to use this closing belox X level advice"...that every advisor on tv/blog gives?...I dont think its a practical advice
Cheers
Hi Anuj,
ReplyDeleteI perfectly agree with you and i used to earlier get confused as to when to put in a trade if we go by closing price.. indeed it is a point to ponder on but i mentioned this because yesterday 5110 nifty SAR was breached and you went short ( as you earlier said) but today the short must have been squeezed out as stop loss triggered. So i was thinking if intraday signals are important or should we go by closing price strategy (in this case wait for the next day to trade or trade at 3:29 pm and hope the trade is triggered.) You are right in saying that it is bit impractical but the importance of it cannot be ruled out .. can it?
@shazia
ReplyDeleteto be or not to be?...
That's a trader's dilemma..buy the breakout or wait for first pullback..both ideas has risk and rewards attached
Breakout...you enter at highest point of risk away from base
First pullback...you may never get it...and when you get it ...it's probably too late
I am just writing a post on money management
That will reduce your confusion...as well as mine
So watch this space for more..
Cheers
anuj bhai,u r one of my mentor in this sharing and helping others spirit sir.
ReplyDeletekind regards....
vicky.....