MARKET CALLS FOR 22 JANUARY 2010
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Dear Anuj,
ReplyDeleteI have taken long on IDEA-FUT@57.25 and 2 lots of 5100CE@53.50 just before market close..
Would you please guide me how to handle these positions tomorrow because the way US markets falling now seems to be GAPDOWN openings tomorrow..
Hi ramfm
ReplyDeleteIDEA futures today's prices were 58.4(high) and 56.4 (low) is that right? Based on that...
Swing(Down) SAR(58.40) Low risk entry (57.2-57.4) Target (55.4-55.6)
So as per recent price action its trading down and that to quite clearly from last four days at least.we should be short in it.But you are long so as of now thats a risky position,but let's also see the silver lining it didn't fall that much today and recovered in late trade while market fell.so once above SAR (todays high) swing will change to UP and it will start to work in your favor.So prepare for the worst (for tomorrow) and hope for best,make a clear plan now before you sleep and follow that, dont look what US markets do.and get out of the position tomorrow if SAR is not breached,remember we have a weekend coming and Mondays are not good(BLACK MONDAYs very popular)
21 january 2008 and 18 may 2009 was Monday too,in the weekend news channels create panic/euphoria and effect is seen on Monday's trading
I dont track options so cant comment on option price in specific but Nifty is over sold(oversold markets can become more oversold,"oversold" is a dangerous term to use in trending conditions) so some bounce can come.levels i have updated.trade accordingly,lighten up on your positions if they are going against you.
All the best in managing your position
Dear Anuj,
ReplyDeleteThanks for your guidenace..
Will close if idea does not breach SAR level with in 30 mins of opening..
Thanks,
Ramesh.
hi ramsfm
ReplyDeletethats a better "idea"
closing it if it breaches 30 mins opening range
Thanks Anuj..
ReplyDeleteclosed MY IDEA futures in profit with 2.75/-...
Still holding my 2 lots of 5100CE(Missed to exit at 40 level i was not at my desk at that time), No problem will exit with suitable price..
Thanks,
Ramesh.
hi ramsfm
ReplyDeleteIdea really went up today (7 percent i guess while market tanked...and it may well continue in coming 2 days as well)
When SAR is breached generally its the on going 3 wave EW so big profits come (its my random thought...please observe when you trade...i dont use EW)
Thanks once again on yoru guidence..
ReplyDeleteAs we planned waited first 30 mins and by the time it was up by 4% and simply booked because 2 things one is market direction is down and 2nd one is week end..those 2 points prompted me to book profits immeditely...
I am new to EW theory still i am student under Ilango guidence..
Will keep that in mind in future, Its nice to have interaction with such senior guy's like you...
Thanks,
Ramesh.
hi
ReplyDeleteyes your approach was fine,most of the time stock will follow index but todays action means Idea has better relative strength than nifty and is strong for what reason i dont know i will just follow SAR and not question stock price movement
you should read ...how to make money in stock -by William J. O'Neil-he is a market wizard in jack Schwager book ...he narrates a similar experience that you had today ....when market was donw one of the stocks he followed was going up....so he bought that ...full story in his book
cheers
Hi ramsfm
ReplyDeleteLast night i thought about your Idea position.and i want to ask this question to your and give you some food for thought...
What if following conditions were there ?
Market was going up
Idea was going down
And you had Long position in IDEA
what will you do in following case ? Hold a losing idea position while markets was going up?
Trading one financial instrument and making a decision to hold or come out of it based on index and lead to serious damage to your trading account.A lot of people lose their sleep watching what dow does at the closing.Its of no us.we broadly follow dow but you should not trade in indian stocks based on dow...you should trade based on stock price not even nifty.
Its like looking to London talking to Tokyo and ignoring the ditch in front of you!!(LOL)
just a thought for weekend ...what you did was fine for the time being as weekend was full of uncertainties and that position made you uncomfortable.waiting for your thoughts
sir,
ReplyDelete1. Prices of all the stocks are of future or spot?
2. Should one carry position overnight as per SWING trend?
3. Which one, among the stocks selected by you, is the best for swing trading
Hi vvvvv,
ReplyDeleteI have replied to your question in this post...comments section
http://financeandtradingmadeeasy.blogspot.com/2010/01/traders-talk-25-january-2010.html
yes you should carry overnight position as per swing (that the most important part...carrying position overnight)