INDIAN MARKETS CALL FOR 28 JANUARY 2010


3 comments:

  1. hi anuj
    plz put a posting on how to hedge the nifty future when long, and when in short for overnight positions as well as longer positions.
    with regards
    moh

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  2. Hi moh
    still up ?...its very late at night...watching DOW?...ha ha
    so you want to hedge your position...before i tell you how....i want to ask you why do you want to hedge?.if you are in doubt about what will happen the next day ...just move out of the current position
    hedging involves costs(brokerage) and if not perfectly hedged it can lead to losses too...
    When in doubt you should be out
    Now coming back to your question(not to disappoint with my thoughts)...the best way to hedge is to take opposite position(in next month futures) to the current one(for example if you are long NIFTY -jan futures...then go short in nifty feb futures)
    this is perhaps the most easiest and cost effective method
    you can use options as well...but their pricing is difficult...and you have to calculate time decay as well...brokerage is also high
    Another way is take opposite position in stock having beta close to zero (like i think reliance...check NSE site for more stocks)...but last two cases will lead to imperfect hedging hence risk
    perfect hedging is when there is neither a loss nor a gain in the end after you square off both the positions
    hedging is mainly for protecting your portfolio from event risk(like election result day if you remember)
    It is best to be out if you are trading in nifty ...if you are not sure...just stop and think(will it make sense hedging every day?)...there will be no benefit to hedge on daily basis that to nifty (if its your portfolio then its a different case)..
    Hope that will help you...
    Good luck
    AJ

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  3. hi anuj,
    yeah, now i am doing this another month opposite position [i call it putting a rubberband around], and stretch it as per trend in intraday.

    my query was to have something better than that.
    in days like this week where:
    - many gapup gapdown days,
    - possiblity for trend reversal, or bounce back,
    [like till ystrday 7pm it looked like a definite down, with a possible reversal up - coz of expiry.
    but, now at 4am, US has already bounced up, so a possible bounce here.]
    in this situation, if i had taken a short yesterday at closing time, then what would be the best safety againt a gapup ?
    [ofcourse, now i have equal short and next month longs in future.
    i did not take the risk to take an unbalanced short].
    yes, i am raw to options, so not able to workout a hedge, especially around expiry.
    -------
    i also thought the cost of hedge can be justified only if the reward is really good.
    so the confusion.
    ofcourse, going only intra may save these burden.
    working out sar remains difficult.
    atr swing reversals seem a bit unviable too.
    so for now i am just managing with future long/ short combination.
    --------
    plz try to comeout with an article discussing various hedging possibilities, their pros & cons, with a possible example workout on costing of hedging in a what-if pattern.
    ---------
    have a nice day.
    with regards.
    Moh
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    by the way,
    i dont think your site is affected by any malware,
    the problem must be at the download file site or one of its links.
    mediafire is also a good site for hosting files.
    all the best.
    ------------

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