Seeking Help From "The Rebel" of "The Indian Market Monitor"

Hi to all and a special request to "The Rebel" of "The Indian Market Monitor"

I have keenly followed the relative strength analysis over time.It helps in getting the "big picture view" of the Stock Markets
Below are some charts which have been bothering me for months now.They are relative strength charts of NTPC and Nifty.During the bear market lows NTPC started to outperform Nifty in a huge way (we can see clear divergence in chart during that period (October 2008-March2009)).However as the pessimism vanished we can see that Nifty recovered very sharply while NTPC during the same time became an underperformed
Although I neither traded nor made any investments in NTPC(may be because of the pessimism around) Looking back now makes me all the more uncomfortable.If I had made an investment in NTPC back then,the stock would have tested my patience like anything. At least we expect to be in a stock that outperforms the index in some way.

I came across "The Rebel's" blog recently as he tracks relative strength movement quite closely, he might be able to provide useful insights into this pattern,and how to filter some of these non performing trades.I would request other people, who follow NTPC to comment as well,I may have missed some news all this while, that stopped it's progress.
Cheers

NTPC National Thermal Power Corporation Nifty Technical Chart Quote trading relative strength study important turning points percent returns sideways problem timamo Sunil Saranjame












NTPC National Thermal Power Corporation Nifty Technical EOD End of Day Chart Quote trading relative strength study poor returns disappointment timamo Sunil Saranjame














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Nifty Trend...Short bias?

Hi
I am uploading a couple of charts showing recent trends in Nifty.Bollinger bands have "compressed" to suggest an impending large move,which direction we don't know.I have plotted some trend channels and possible support and resistance.I feel this is good time to open shorts as it offers good risk to reward ratio.Stop loss will be close to recent highs
Nifty Technical Chart Quote trading trendline channel support resistance important turning points bollinger bands low volatility narrow contracting compressed













Nifty Technical Chat Average true range ATR low Top formation reversal trendline break spark downturn possible


Download - Narrow Range 7 (NR7) Calculator

One of the generally accepted views about the market is that markets move from period of range contraction to period of range expansion and vice versa.Or period of high volatility are preceded by period of low volatility.Many indicators and setups like Bollinger bands ,Average true range (ATR) etc are based on this premise.Narrow Range 7 or NR7 as it is commonly known is one such setup.

I am uploading Narrow Range 7 (NR7) setup calculator.You can download it from here.

The calculator will help you in finding right stocks at right time which may experience rise in volatility soon (mostly it's the next day).In other words you will move a little closer to "timing the markets",which is often said to be an impossible thing

How to use the calculator?

It's very simple all you need to do is copy the data in grey cells.You need to copy the date ,high and low prices on end of the day (EOD) basis.Just be careful when you copy the high and low data for the day,quite often due to "freak quotes" you get inappropriate opening values (happens mostly with illiquid stocks).So I would say ignore a few initial ticks if that is cumbersome ignore the first minute data.

That's all about the calculator.Personally I strongly believe that markets indeed move from low volatility to high volatility period.I made this calculator a long time ago but never worked on this idea in detail.I will study this in detail and will come up with other forms of calculators based on this.Shortly I will write a post on who can benefit from this and some related trading strategies
Good luck with your trading.

Related Files
Related Post

All the links updated under the label "Download"

Hi,
I have updated all the links under the label "Download", click here to access all the files and various calculators.

All the files in future will be presented in two versions.First "the calculator version" which should be used by people who have limited knowledge about excel with default indicator values.Second "Modifiable (Research Version)" ,formulas can be modified in this version, it will be useful for people who are interested in market research.If your face any problem with downloads just let me know in the comments section below.

Good luck with your trades.

How To Become A Stock Trader - 6 Stages Of Development As A Share Market Trader

Stage One: The Clueless Trader

1) Heard of a day trader making millions, or buying options is safe and can make you rich quickly
2) Got lucky in an earlier stock investment.
3) After all, how hard can it be? The money sounds appealing and the  freedom to be independent sounds attractive
4) Every trader is optimistic
5) You open a direct access brokerage account and the sound of Level II, ask/bid, and market makers make trading sound like hi-tech video game
6) You will buy just to see the market reverse and you will short just as the market starts to rally.
7) Most of your trades are done emotionally. You buy just because the markets feel strong without any logical reason
8) You have no clue how the mechanics and psychology of trading works. What's worse? You are not aware that you don't know
9) Most traders will blow their entire account at this stage.
10) Mostly you start your trading in a bull market
11) You will spend more time finding a  broker charging least brokerage, how to save tax, and like companies paying dividend and issuing splits and bonuses and less time in learning what trading actually is.
12) A big majority of people will leave trading and blame the randomness of markets, or say markets are always manipulated
13) Generally you start with fundamental analysis and put money in "good" companies and don’t forget to watch CNBC
14) You don’t know what is short selling or have never tried it, no idea of stop loss as well
15) You are in the unconscious incompetence stage, in this stage your capital is at maximum risk


Stage Two: The Rookie Trader

1) In this stage you have lost enough money to realize what you are doing is completely wrong. In other words, you start to realize that you don't know.
2) You will then devour every trading book available. 
3) Your search for magic indicator  and the holy grail starts here
4) You will memorize every technical pattern known to man. You will read about the ADX, moving averages, Fibonacci lines, pivot points, MACD, Bollinger Bands, channels, etc
5) You will go through the "help" tab on your data vendor to read about every single technical indicator available
6) You will plot them on your charts and spend hours looking for an indicator that works
7) You will be extra confident now, thinking you have found the magical technical indicator
8) Yet, you still continue to lose money everyday. You realize that your indicators are lagging and that every other new trader is probably looking at the same thing.
9) You realize that you are the sucker
10) You are in the conscious incompetence stage.


Stage Three: The Developing Trader

1) You start to realize the amount of work required and the immense learning curve that you must overcome to understand the markets, maximum pessimism is experienced here 
2) At this point, traders may find it overwhelming and quit. Stronger minded traders will push their motivation harder to start their second spurt for knowledge
3) Hunger and passion is needed to clear this stage
4) You will ask a thousand questions and bug every professional trader you meet. You will read a thousand day trading articles
5) You will start paper trading, develop strategies and setups, and define risk  parameters for every trade
6) You will go on a hunt for self-understanding to master your psychological game
7) You will visualize every possibility on a trade before you take it.
8) This is the true learning phase. You are trying hard to develop your edge in trading.



Stage Four: The Determined Trader

1) This is the stage in which you learn to specialize in certain markets and trading methods
2) Without realizing it, you have finally found your style of trading after hours of hard work and research. You stick to your method and you improve it
3) You realize that you need an edge whether its tape reading or being a Fibonacci expert. The important thing is you are slowly transforming yourself into a specialized trader
4) You test your methods and they seem to work. You gain tremendous market knowledge.
5) You reflect back on yourself and you can't help but laugh at your foolishness.
6) Although you have not made enough money to call yourself successful you are proud of your journey and accomplishments
7) You realize that the Holy Grail is not about technical indicators or price patterns
8) You calculate risk before profits and place strict money management on all your trades.
9) You cut losses short and learn to scale out on your winners.
10) You start accept losing as a natural part of the game
11) You take high probability trades that you have tested and feel confident about your setups because you understand that trading is a game of probabilities
12) Your psychological makeup has changed from an amateur mindset to a professional one.

Stage Five: The Consistent Trader

1) You rely on your trading method and start taking trades systematically. You try to aim for consistency and are meeting your daily goals often.
2) You are fully aware of your strengths and weaknesses as a trader.
3) At times you feel euphoric and at times you feel pain. But you are able to understand your own psychological makeup to control your emotional swings.
4) You are now able to trade for a living
5) You have reached the conscious competence stage.

Stage Six: The Expert Trader

1) In this final stage, you completely understand the markets you are trading. Being involved in it everyday you are aware of every key price level
2) You understand market concept and are able to predict the direction of the markets a fairly good amount of time.
3) You pat yourself on your back and take profits as soon as you feel euphoric. You do this because you understand euphoria is the same as emotional trading.
4) You talk to other traders and realize the development stage they are in
5) People start asking you for trading advice, you publish a book, and you have a specific trading methodology that represents you!
6) Taking trades come naturally and you are able to get in and out at the precise price levels based on tape
7) Instead of having the markets take your stop out, you exit when you know you are wrong.
8) You keep your head high but remain humble on the inside. You have now officially graduated the school of the hard knocks
9) You have reached the unconscious competence stage

Blog Update

Hi all,
Hope every body is doing well in life and trading.After about a two weeks rest, I feel I should get back to business.Although I didn't plan this break,but last week of March was difficult for me.There were guests at home and  trading was choppy.I was very exhausted both mentally as well as physically (back problem).
I felt the pressure of updating the blog regularly with levels on index and stocks.I think doing this on regular basis is tough and not sustainable for me as I manage this blog alone.

In the last two weeks,first week I was taking proper rest almost bed ridden just sleeping and eating.Last week I started to browse various blogs to find out a way on how things can be communicated well with readers.Unfortunately (as it always happens with me)...I could not find a good way , most of the blogs and website seems to be manged professionally.Some were concentrating on educational aspect other were based on calls.I want do a little bit of both.Educational aspect is interesting ,you get to study different perspectives in trading and investment, while giving stock ideas makes the mind sharp and you develop a sense of responsibility.In both the cases the person who benefits the most is the blog writer!!

My experience with blogging (for the past 2 months) has been mixed...on one hand it has improved my trading...on the other it takes a lot of time updating the information which means less time for research and other things in life

Now regarding the further course of action...I think I should develop the blog as per "the holy grail post".The post presents a "structured" approach to trading, it should work nicely with the blog as well.That means I will begin from the very basics of trading and then move to advance levels.I think I should just start, although with a confused mind...over the period of time I will find the way.I feel this will not take few days or weeks but months or years to shape up.Just as trading has taken years this will be a similar task.I would request readers to be patient as the information that will be presented may not be useful to you but may be useful to others, that is because at one point in time two people are in different stages of development as a trader

Lastly I would like to thank every body for their suggestions and support. I hope that we will continue to grow together and become better traders and better human being as well!!!
Cheers